# The price of creating poor blackjack plays!

### The price of creating poor blackjack plays!

Variance can be simplified this way: it represents how things play out over the long run, to infinity. We know that playing basic blackjack method combined with card counting produces a minimal edge for the player over the casino in blackjack. For illustration purposes (and please realize we know this is just a basic example) let’s say that your edge at the blackjack table breaks down this way: for every 100 hands you play the casino will win 49 of them and you will win 51. This edge is calculated over 100 hands in order for the player to quantify it, but the reality is that these numbers actually represent your improvement over an unlimited span of time. In an infinite scenario your edge will make you a winner.

The problem is that there is a lot of space medially one single session and infinity. When you stop to consider one single blackjack session and its overall place in your blackjack career, you can see that a single session is just a blip on the radar. Therefore, you can lose in a single session-many times-and still win overall. 100 hands, 51 wins, 49 losses. Those wins and losses can come at any time. That’s variance.

You might lose 15 hands in a row, win three, lose four more, win nine, etc.. All you can know for certain is that your edge will hold up over time if you stick to basic blackjack method and count cards.

When negative variance kicks in and players have a bad run, they start to question their plan. They decide that it isn’t working now for a sense and they manner that perhaps they will need to correct. At this time they begin to change their drama. Rather than hitting a 16 from the trader’s 10 they stay it on, hoping that luck will soon prevail. Rather than standing on a difficult 12 from the trader’s 4, then they twice down. Here is the start of the end to get a blackjack player.