Variance can be simplified this way: it represents how things play out over the long run, to infinity. We know that playing basic blackjack method combined with card counting produces a minimal edge for the player over the casino in blackjack. For illustration purposes (and please realize we know this is just a basic example) let’s say that your edge at the blackjack table breaks down this way: for every 100 hands you play the casino will win 49 of them and you will win 51. This edge is calculated over 100 hands in order for the player to quantify it, but the reality is that these numbers actually represent your improvement over an unlimited span of time. In an infinite scenario your edge will make you a winner.
The problem is that there is a lot of space medially one single session and infinity. When you stop to consider one single blackjack session and its overall place in your blackjack career, you can see that a single session is just a blip on the radar. Therefore, you can lose in a single session-many times-and still win overall. 100 hands, 51 wins, 49 losses. Those wins and losses can come at any time. That’s variance.
You might lose 15 hands in a row, win three, lose four more, win nine, etc.. All you can know for certain is that your edge will hold up over time if you stick to basic blackjack method and count cards.
When negative variance kicks in and players have a bad run, they start to question their plan. They decide that it isn’t working now for a sense and they manner that perhaps they will need to correct. At this time they begin to change their drama. Rather than hitting a 16 from the trader’s 10 they stay it on, hoping that luck will soon prevail. Rather than standing on a difficult 12 from the trader’s 4, then they twice down. Here is the start of the end to get a blackjack player.
Whenever you give into the desire to abandon standard method and drama such as the recreational blackjack player, then you’ve significantly changed your general advantage. You’ve altered the amounts. In our previous case we calculated that advantage since winning 51 from 100 hands. For example, let’s’s state that left fundamental method currently usually means you will shed 51 from 100 hands. That is the reason why, when gamers leave fundamental method, they will continue losing. If they’d stuck to the program, things could have turned out and also their improvement could have hauled up. Nowthey are all on the losing end of this scale along with the casino has the advantage.
This is the mindset you have to consider the blackjack table. Remember it "Decisions matter, outcomes are irrelevant. "
Whether you win or lose a single hand doesn’t matter in the long run. What matters, if you want to maintain your edge, is whether or not you made the right play. Each hand is just a microcosm of your blackjack career. Don’t fret about if you win or lose one hand. Stress about making the ideal play along with your advantage will hold up with time and also make you a winner.